(1/5) State by State Analysis

 

Hello everyone. The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections have come out and man, what a surprise it was!! I was planning to do only one blog on this but the content and nuances are so large that I have to do 5 blogs. The BJP which secured 303 seats in 2019, crossing the majority mark of 272, couldn't cross the magic number this time. It secured only 240 seats and won elections with its NDA partners. After 10 years, we see a coalition government(but in doubt). The INDI Alliance shocked everybody by winning 234 seats and Congress won 99 seats.

Now we will do a state-by-state analysis on how people of that state have voted. This is going to be on issues and pure politics. How seat sharing has happened between alliances. So without further delay let's start.

SOUTH INDIA (132 SEATS):

Andhra Pradesh:  

Andhra Pradesh sends 25 seats to the Lok Sabha. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has won 16 seats, BJP  has won 3 seats, and Jana Sena has won 3 seats.  They are all NDA partners and 21 seats have gone to the NDA. The incumbent YSR Congress Party has won only 4 seats and Congress drew blank.

There was a huge anti-incumbency against YSRCP and CM Jagan Mohan Reddy. The capital problem has been bugging AP since the bifurcation. YSRCP stopped all the developments happening in Amaravati, the potential capital. Huge corruption scams were seen in this government. The welfare schemes like YSR Ryuthu Bharosa only benefitted farmers with land but not landless farmers. Moreover, this scheme couldn't reach the remote parts of AP. This is just one example out of a lot of schemes. TDP's Chandrababu Naidu promised a lot of infrastructural plans and welfare schemes in AP and people were impressed by it. The same reason can be said for the victory in the state election.

Karnataka:

Karnataka sends 28 seats to the Lok Sabha. In 2019 BJP won a massive 25 out of 28 seats here. But their seats were cut this time by the Congress. BJP won only 17 seats here and Congress improved its tally by winning 9 seats. The Janata Dal (Secular) JDS, an NDA ally has won 2 seats. So, NDA won 19 and INDIA won 9 seats.

A simple reason why BJP lost seats is they focussed on their Hindutva agenda rather than attacking the Congress Government there. A lot of issues were bugging like corruption, congestion in Bengaluru, water problems, and unemployment in North Karnataka. People were angry at the center for destroying the MSME(Medium and Small Manufacturing Enterprises ) in North Karnataka. That's why you see wins for Congress in that state.

The huge sex scandal by the JDS Prajwal Revanna has created a wave of widespread anger among people. In campaigns, neither PM Modi nor BJP uttered a single word on this and continued to support Prajwal. Prajwal lost from Hassan which has been a JDS stronghold for so many years. In my opinion, people have given a good verdict.

Kerala:

Kerela gives 20 seats to the parliament. Congress won 14 seats making it the largest party in the state.

 Its partners, the Communist Party and IUML won 1 and 2 seats respectively. BJP recorded history by winning its first seat in the state(Thrissur). Kerela Congress and the Revolutionary Socialist Party won each seat. So INDIA won 17 seats, NDA won 1 and others won 2 seats.

Kerala's case is a peculiar one because Congress and CPI(M) are both in the same alliance but are fighting against each other. Communist Party Government had a huge setback as they couldn't control the huge debt crisis that Kerala is facing now. Known for its literacy rate, Kerala people are not employed as 90% of the literate people there are unemployed now. This has shifted the vote share to Congress.

As for the BJP, the candidate won solely due to his popularity. Actor Suresh Gopi known for his memes just won by the power of memes and was the candidate in Thrissur. But on a serious note, let's see what he offers to the people of Thrissur. Other famous names like Rahul Gandhi, and Shashi Tharoor won from Wayanad and Thiruvananthapuram respectively. However, Shashi Tharoor barely won it as his opponent Union Minister, BJP's Rajeev Chandrashekhar almost won.

Puducherry and Tamil Nadu:

Puducherry and Tamil Nadu give 40 seats to the Lok Sabha(39 TN +1 Puducherry). The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has won 22 seats, INC 9 seats, the Communist Party( Marxist and Marxist-Leninist) won 2 seats each, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi won 2 seats, Marumalarchi  DMK and IUML won 1 seat each. The BJP-led NDA and Anna DMK drew a blank here.

Now, let me tell you one thing. If an alliance or a party in power swept a state, it doesn't mean that there are no issues in the state. It is just that the opposition couldn't garner the support of the people.

Talking about issues, there are a lot. To name a few, corruption, and bad quality of state highways and village roads. Chennai recorded the most number of accidents in 2023. More than local issues, national issues like farmer's protests, the Agniveer scheme, and CAA have given space to Anti-BJP votes. The same can be said about Puducherry. That's why Congress which contested 10 seats including Puducherry according to the seat sharing with DMK has bagged all 10. The last time they lost a seat to ADMK. 

Media reports also say that if BJP and ADMK had been in the alliance, they would have got 13-14 seats as the combined vote share is more than the DMK vote share. It would have given a tough fight to the INDI Alliance. For example in Thirunelveli, Thiruppur, Coimbatore, Cuddalore, Thenkasi, Kanyakumari, Chennai South, Namakkal, Salem, Virudhunagar. BJP, as said has crossed the 10% vote share which makes them a bit more significant in that state. However both the BJP and ADMK have failed to surround the INDI alliance on issues.

Telangana:

Telangana sends 17 seats to the Lok Sabha. The state which was expected to give a three-way contest between BJP, Congress, and BRS(Bharat Rashtra Samiti), has turned out to be a BJP vs Congress battle state. BRS which lost the state election last year, drew a blank this time. There was a tight contest between the BJP and Congress as both won 8 seats each. AIMIM won 1 seat, the seat of Hyderabad.

BRS has been in terminal decline since its loss in the state election and the workers are really demotivated. Not much was heard about BRS in the election. The huge problem of Unemployment was the main issue here and government schools and jobs in Northern and Central Telangana(Adilabad, Nizamabad, Warangal, and Karimnagar) have reported vacancies. Talking about central government jobs there were 1.6 lakh job vacancies and 2 lakh in the state government. Clearly anger against both parties. As far as Hyderabad is concerned, it saw the most polarized campaign in its history as the Hindu-Muslim polarization was done by both AIMIM's Owaisi and BJP's candidate Madhvi Latha. It did backfire on the BJP.

Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep Islands:

Both are Union Territories and what makes them special is the voting pattern. They send 1 seat each to the Lok Sabha. The good news is that tribals in Andaman and Nicobar Islands have voted in large numbers. The BJP has won this seat It is reported that the BJP government has built infrastructure and has brought tribal welfare schemes. Since these islands are very sensitive in the geopolitics era. It is also very important to develop the infra here.

But Lakshadweep expressed disappointment as Congress won it. People reportedly want action on climate change as Lakshadweep's corals are breaching due to prolonged marine heatwaves. It has significantly affected Lakshadweep's economy.

The South India has 132 seats in total. The NDA won 50 seats, INDIA won 75 seats and others won 7 seats.

WESTERN INDIA(103 SEATS):

Daman and Diu and Dadra and Nagar Haveli:

The Union territory gave one seat to the BJP and one seat was won by an independent candidate. If we are aware of the issues in Gujarat then we can analyze this.

Goa:

A tight contest in Goa. BJP and Congress won one seat each. It is reported that the RSS in South Goa was not used up to its potential and Congress candidate Viriato Fernandes focussed on Unemployment in Goa. The issue of Climate Change was there but not as significant as in Lakshadweep. BJP snatched victory in North Goa from the Congress.

Gujarat:

Gujarat gives 26 seats to the Lok Sabha. In both 2014 and 2019, BJP bagged all the 26 seats. But this time they won all 25 seats and Congress after 10 years managed to get one seat from Gujarat.

Again here it doesn't mean that all are good in Gujarat. It saw a series of infrastructural damages and corruption at the municipal level. There were a series of caste protests. Although Gujarat is doing well in the business field, its social indicators couldn't get worse. Education in Gujarat is still a question mark as school dropouts have increased.

 It is just that Congress couldn't raise the issues against the government. Congress did win its seat due to the grassroots connection of its candidate.

Maharashtra:

Now let's come to the interesting state you all must have been waiting for. The state which gives the second largest no of seats to Lok Sabha, Maharashtra(48). The most confusing campaigning ever as even voters were confused about whom to vote for. But you must give it to the Indian Voter. Never underestimate them. The BJP which was very confident in sweeping Maharashtra only won 9 seats.

Its allies, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and NCP(Ajit Pawar faction) won 7 seats and 1 seat respectively.

Whereas Congress emerged as the largest party in the state winning 13 seats, Shiv Sena(Uddhav Thackrey) won 9 seats and NCP(Sharad Pawar) won 8 seats. One independent won the seat of Sangli.

There was a huge sympathy wave with Uddhav Thackrey and Sharad Pawar as their parties had undergone a split and BJP was hugely responsible for this. The Congress also accused the BJP of "Washing Machine Politics"(Will explain it in the next blog). Increasing cases of Farmers' suicide in Vidarbha and Unemployment were some main issues. The BMC under the NDA was irresponsible as potholes and infrastructural damages were done. Potholes remained for months and BMC didn't even react.

The Pune road incident where the court said the boy should write an essay instead of punishing him has spread widespread anger among people.

Rajasthan:

Rajasthan sends 25 seats to the Lok Sabha. The largest state has sent a shock to the BJP as BJP's tally decreased from 22 in 2019 to 14 seats. The Congress won 8 seats. Congress's allies like the Communist Party, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, and Bharatiya Adivasi Party all have won one seat each. Congress has given an excellent performance here. Under Sachin Pilot's leadership, Congress was seen in the ground.

Congress surrounded the BJP on paper leak scams and unemployment and Agniveer scheme. While the BJP attacked the Congress with corruption charges and Hindutva agenda. But the Hindutva agenda has backfired the BJP.

So Western India sends 103 seats in total. NDA won 58 seats, INDIA won 43 seats and others won 2 seats.

CENTRAL INDIA(40 SEATS):

Madhya Pradesh:

Madhya Pradesh gives 29 seats to the Lok Sabha. BJP swept Madhya Pradesh as they won all 29 seats. The Congress here couldn't garner support again. Infighting in the Madhya Pradesh Congress has resulted in losing all the seats in Madhya Pradesh. People have voted for economic progress in Madhya Pradesh by BJP government and women-centric schemes. However, Congress was unable to surround the BJP in rural distress, corruption, and unemployment.

Chhattisgarh:

Chhattisgarh sends 11 seats to Lok Sabha. BJP swept as they won 10 seats and Congress won 1 seat.

BJP has won them because of its zero-tolerance policy on Naxalism (Left Extremism). Naxalism cases have been brought down significantly.  Cases of Paper leaks have decreased. Of course, Congress again didn't much focus on Unemployment and Farmer distress as it was busy with its infighting within the party.

Central India gives 40 seats to the Lok Sabha. NDA has won a thumping 39 seats and INDIA only 1 seat.

EASTERN INDIA(117 SEATS):

Bihar:

Bihar sends 40 seats to the Lok Sabha making it the fourth largest state to send more no of seats.

The combined efforts of BJP(12), Janata Dal(United)(12), Lok Janshakti Party(RVP)(5) and Hindustan Awam Morcha(1) have given the NDA a total of 30 seats in Bihar. The INDI alliance which comprises Congress(3), Rashtriya Janata Dal(4), and Communist Party (2) bagged 9 seats in total. And an independent won 1 seat.

More than issues of Unemployment, job vacancies, corruption, public exam paper leaks, and the Agniveer scheme, we saw more drama in Bihar. The whole drama will be explained in the upcoming blogs. The RJD did take up the unemployment issue but it didn't work out. A huge amount of caste politics was played in Bihar.

Jharkhand:

Jharkhand gives 14 seats to the Lok Sabha. The BJP has won 8 seats and its NDA partner All India Jharkhand Student Union (AJSU) has won 1 seat. The Congress won 2 seats along with Jharkhand Mukti Morcha which won 3 seats. 

Unemployment, Paper leaks, and corruption were the issues with which the BJP surrounded the JMM-Congress government. And since its CM Hemanth Soren is in custody, there is an anti-incumbency factor in Jharkhand against Soren. The industries in Jharkhand are receiving investments from private companies and BJP is helping them. So this might change things in the upcoming state elections.

Odisha:

Sending 21 seats to the Lok Sabha, Odisha gave the biggest shock to BJD. The BJP won the state elections ending the 24-year-long rule of Biju Janata Dal supremo Naveen Patnaik. BJP swept the state grabbing 20 seats and Congress won 1 seat. 

Even though the people of Odisha didn't have anything against Naveen Patnaik or his governance, it was the party that angered the people. BJP played the narrative against VK Pandian who was a bureaucrat turned politician, CM Patnaik's aide. He was the unannounced successor of Naveen Patnaik.

BJP campaigned on how can a Tamilian rule Odisha state and targeted Patnaik's ailing health. Although rumors were squashed by Naveen Patnaik it didn't help much. Moreover, there were allegations of corruption against government officials and bureaucrats.

West Bengal:

The third state that sends the most seats to Lok Sabha, West Bengal has  42 seats.

All the exit polls that said there was going to be a wave of BJP were squashed by the Trinamool Congress. TMC won 29 seats and improved by 7 seats from 2019. Congress won 1 seat. The BJP won 12 seats here. 

We did see a wave of anger against the center on CAA, immigration, and unemployment. But at the same time, TMC was surrounded by corruption cases. Bashirhaut, where the infamous Sandeshkhali incident took place was won by the TMC. It was a bit disappointing to see a candidate getting elected who is charged with crimes against women. Moreover, Bengal's campaign was very polarized and booth violence was seen on the day of voting.

Eastern India comprises 117  seats. NDA won 71 seats, INDIA won 45 seats and others won 1 seat.

NORTH-WESTERN INDIA (41 SEATS):

Delhi:

Delhi sends 7 seats to the Lok Sabha. The national capital has given a surprising verdict as BJP has swept all the 7 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party couldn't win even 1 seat here. Kejriwal's arrest didn't create any sympathy waves as expected by some media houses.

Congestion in Old Delhi, pollution, and the fight between the center and state government were the issues. The liquor scam also affected the AAP. The AAP and Congress alliance couldn't work properly.

Faces like Kanhaiya Kumar who are known for their fiery speeches lost the election.

Chandigarh  and Haryana

Haryana sends 10 seats to Lok Sabha. 5 were won by the BJP and 5 by the Congress and Chandigarh was won by Congress again.

There is a huge anger against the BJP about the farmers' protests, the wrestler protests, unemployment, and how a sitting chief minister was changed as it is. Storage grains were destroyed. The rural distress in Haryana was completely seen.

Chandigarh elected Congress as people saw how BJP cheated in the Chandigarh Mayoral Election which happened in January of this month. Unemployment was a very big problem in Chandigarh.

Himachal Pradesh:

Having 4 seats in LokSabha, BJP has swept all the 4 seats here. People are tired of an unstable Congress government. Congress failed to do the groundwork before campaigning which simply resulted in the loss. Congress failed to address the melting of glaciers and other climate change phenomena which resulted in the victory of the BJP. Anurag Singh Thakur in Hamirpur and Kangana Ranaut in Mandi are some famous names who have won their seat.

Jammu and Kashmir:

It is the first time that elections have taken place after the abrogation of Article 370. After a very long time, Jammu and Kashmir are talking about issues like Unemployment, education, and healthcare. The polling too happened in a very peaceful manner. BJP won 2 seats, The National Conference which is a member of the INDI alliance won 2 seats and an independent won a seat. The voter turnout has increased. Overall a positive impact on our democracy.

Ladakh:

Ladakh has unusually elected an independent candidate. This is due to the widespread anger against the center for its inaction on climate change. As you know Sonam Wangchuk was fasting for climate change. Also, the demand for the Sixth Schedule is increasing.

Punjab:

Punjab gives 13 seats to the Lok Sabha.  The BJP drew a blank. The alliance of Congress(7) and Aam Aadmi Party(3) has resulted in INDIA winning 10 seats. The Shiromani Akali Dal won 1 seat and two independents won.

BJP continuously tried to suppress the farmers' protest and name-calling them Khalistani has resulted in an Anti-BJP wave in Punjab. This has also led to the victory of those two independents who are known for making speeches for  Khalistani separatism. It is worrying as the state of Punjab and the central government are continuously fighting each other.

So, North-Western India bags 41 seats. NDA won 18 seats, INDIA also won 18 seats and others have won 5 seats.

NORTH-EASTERN INDIA (25 SEATS):

Arunachal Pradesh:

BJP won all the two seats here. BJP mainly focussed on infrastructure here. And Arunachal Pradesh was happy with the welfare schemes by the BJP government.

Assam:

Assam gives 14 seats to the Lok Sabha. BJP won 9 seats. Along with its allies, Asom Gana Parishad and United People's Party Liberal has won 1 seat each. Congress won 3 seats. Congress couldn't change the narrative against CAA, flood management, and unemployment. The infrastructure in Assam has improved overall.

Manipur:

Manipur sends two seats to the parliament. Due to the failure to control the violence in the state, there was widespread anger against the BJP government both center and state. Congress has won both the seats, the Meitei majority and the Kuki Majority also. Congress leaders visited the state regularly and talked with both sides. Congress deserves credit for this and the BJP's ignorance has resulted in the loss.

Meghalaya:

Meghalaya sends 2 seats to the Lok Sabha. Congress won 1 seat and the Voice of the People party won 1 seat. The kind of political atmosphere that the NDA created was absolutely toxic and people were tired of it.

Mizoram:

Mizoram gives one seat to Lok Sabha. It is bagged by the Zoram People's movement. Illegal immigration and the Manipur violence has made the people vote against the BJP. Mizo National Front and Congress couldn't get much advantage over this.

Nagaland:

Nagaland sends 1 seat to the Lok Sabha. Due to the Manipur violence, the Nagas along with the Kukis were affected. The NDA government didn't do much about the drug trade happening in Nagaland. The huge unemployment crisis is also there where educated people are unemployed.

Sikkim:

Sikkim sends only one seat to the Lok Sabha. The Sikkim Krantikari Morcha has won the seat. Good disaster management, complete focus on Organic farming, and good infrastructure have made the people vote for SKM.

Tripura:

The BJP won both the seats here. A complete control on immigration and infrastructure has resulted in this victory for the BJP.

The North East India sends 25 seats to the Lok Sabha. NDA has won 15 seats, INDIA won 7  seats, and others 3 seats.

NORTH INDIA (85 SEATS):

Uttarakhand:

Uttarakhand gave a massive mandate to the BJP by winning all the 5 seats. The Congress couldn't do it due to a vacuum in the leadership of the state.

Uttar Pradesh:

The wait is over. Perhaps the biggest shock for the BJP as they never expected this number. The BJP won 33 (reduced by half) and the Samajwadi Party won 37 seats surpassing the BJP. Congress won 6 seats improving its tally. NDA allies RLD and Apna dal won 2 seats and 1 seat respectively. Azad party won 1 seat.

No exit poll predicted this kind of result in UP. UP did vote on the issue of unemployment, Agniveer, and basic social indicators. But more than that there is one more factor that will be discussed in detail in the very next blog. It is very important and it kind of shows the whole picture why BJP lost.

North India sends 85 seats to Lok Sabha. NDA won 41 seats, INDIA won 38 seats and others won 1 seat.

Conclusion:

The grand total number of seats bagged by NDA is 292 seats and by INDIA is 232 seats.

BJP is the single largest party in the parliament(240 seats) followed by the Congress (99 seats).

The BJP now needs the help of alliances to form the government. Well, the analysis is not over yet.

This is completely my analysis of the voting pattern. Sometimes it might be wrong. So feel free in the comment section if you disagree and do give your opinions. Completely a free platform to discuss your thoughts.

I would request you to use your phone to read this so that you can zoom in the pictures easily.

The next blog is going to be a detailed analysis of why the BJP lost and why you should never believe any exit polls. This was a really long blog and I thank you for taking your time and reading this.

Thank you and will see you with the next one. Signing off!!

Sources: Election Commission Of India