The Black Paper

 

Hi. Welcome to yet another blog on the White Paper vs Black Paper series. In the previous post, we thoroughly analyzed the white paper and got good insights into how the government improved our economy.

The Black Paper was released by the Congress highlighting the failures of the BJP government. It consists of three main 'anyays'(injustice)- economic, social, and political. We will focus on the economic area of the Black Paper. To make things simple, I will explain the 5 most important points that the Black Paper covers. So without further delay, let's start.

1.) UNEMPLOYMENT CRISIS:

The black paper states that the PM promised  2 crore jobs yearly but failed to deliver the promise.

Here is a table which records the unemployment rate:

The current rate (2024) is 6.37% and the 2023 unemployment rate was really high at 8.003%.

Youth employment has more than doubled, from 6% in 2011-12  to 15% in 2019-20 according to the PLFS data(Periodic Labor Force Survey). As per CMIE(Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) the rate in the 20-24 years was 44.5% in October-November 2023. For 25-29  years it was a 14-month high of 14.33%.

Even if the person is unemployed, they are unpaid. In 2017, 4 crore(37%) have ended up as unpaid workers.  It also covers how the women's workforce is really low. According to the Black Paper, the BJP government used outdated figures and methods to show the unemployment rates.

2.) INFLATION:

If you don't know the meaning of Inflation, I would request you to read the White Paper (Part 1). The prices of every daily essentials are sky-high.

In the last 10  years, there has been a drastic increase in the rate of inflation. Despite the Russia-Ukraine War, the price of Crude Oil in the world market has fallen by 21% from May 2014 to Feb 2024.

Pre Ukraine War

 After Ukraine War

3.) DEMONETISATION:

The demonetization in 2016 hasn't met the goals it was brought in for. What were the goals?

1.)To remove black money.

2.)To make India a cashless economy.

But both of them were never met. Black money remained as corruption was evident in various parts of the country. Cash in circulation from 2016 to 2023 has more than doubled from 16 lakh crores to 34 lakh crores. The share of the country's GDP cash has increased to 12.7% from 11.6 %  in 2014. The scrapping of the 2000 rupee note is not justified yet. It has brought down the GDP by 6.1%. We had a 2% fall which means our GDP was growing 2% slowly.

4.)NO FOCUS ON MSME

The opposition claims that the Modi Government has reduced the corporate tax slabs(the tax that a private company has to pay.) from 30% to 22%, which new companies can pay 15%. This has incurred a loss of 1.84 lakh crores. Since the paper doesn't give a brief idea of how Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises, I will attach an article from The Economic Times to understand it more clearly.

MSME.

5.) COLLAPSE OF PRIVATE INVESTMENTS

Private Investment is a key driver of the economy. Private Investment has fallen from the highs of over 25% of GDP in the second half of the UPA to 19.6% in 2021. Such a low level of private investment has not been since 1999. Experts are raising concerns over premature deindustrialization which seriously impedes economic growth.

 Also, the black paper highlights the shortcomings of "Make in India". Here is an extract from the "INDIA FORUM" 

"The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business reports have been ranking countries since 2006. However, do improvements in rankings generate greater foreign direct investment inflows?... The paper shows this relationship is significant for the average country. However, when the sample is restricted to developing countries, the results suggest an improved ranking has, on average, an insignificant (albeit positive) influence on foreign direct investment inflows...Finally, the paper demonstrates that, on average, countries that undertake large-scale reforms relative to other countries do not necessarily attract greater foreign direct investment inflows. This analysis may have important ramifications for developing country governments wanting to improve their Doing Business Rankings in the hope of attracting foreign direct investment inflows." (Jayasuriya 2011: Abstract; emphasis added)

That wraps up the Black Paper. Now that we have seen the ammunition of both parties, a question arises, who is telling the truth, and who is lying? 

But more than that there is a hidden truth that is lying underneath this fight between Congress and BJP. And I'm sure this truth will never come out and people will blindly follow both the white and the black paper. We will decode this truth in the next blog. Please follow our blog and comment with your opinion too. Until then see ya!

https://www.scribd.com/document/704378936/10-Saal#download&from_embed

Bye