(4/5) The Future of INDIA and Opposition

Hello everyone. Welcome to the 4th part of the election series. We will discuss the future of the INDI Alliance and the future of opposition in India.

But before let's talk about the performance of the INDI alliance. In the INDI alliance, the Indian National Congress won 99 seats, making it the largest party. The next is the Samajwadi Party which secured 37 seats. The next is the Trinamool Congress which got 29 seats and then DMK with 22 seats. And with Shiv Sena(UBT), NCP, CPIM, AAP, RJD, and others, they got a total of 232 seats. The exit polls predicted that they would only win 150-170 seats but the opposition proved it to be wrong. But how?

Just two months before, the alliance was nowhere to be found, and suddenly winning these many seats.

So let's discuss this.

THE CONGRESS FACTOR

I was planning to write a blog on why Congress lost elections but Congress stopped it. In 2019, Congress only won 53 seats but today they have won 99 seats. They have gained 46 seats. They showed massive improvements.

First reason- For the first time Congress focussed on major issues like unemployment, farmer distress, and agniveer, and wherever they went, they just focussed on only these.

Second- We saw a more aggressive Congress this time. They didn't get distracted by small things and portrayed themselves to save the Constitution. Rahul Gandhi in every rally used to show a constitution book.

Third-  Bharat Jodo Yatra and Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra have given a boost to the Congress and Congress workers. In fact, you might think after the yatra covers a certain place, the place will be deserted. But no, yatra energized the local workers there and they were seen in the ground.

Fourth-  While the BJP workers were surprisingly missing on the ground, Congress workers were seen campaigning for the leaders.

Fifth- Many of you might not agree with this. But the fact that Rahul Gandhi improved his campaigning skills. The guy whom the BJP, media mocked two years ago, now stands against them and gives them a nice beating. 

Sixth- Congress's connection with the youth increased more. More youth force of Congress was seen campaigning. Talented leaders like Sachin Pilot, Revanth Reddy, and Gaurav Gogoi were used fully to their potential.

Seventh- In the direct fight between Congress and BJP, the strike rate of the Congress in 2019 was just 8% but now it rapidly increased to 29%, giving the BJP a run for their money. 

Congress improved its tally in many states. In Gujarat, Manipur, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, where Congress had no seats, they have won.

ALLIANCE MAGIC:

The success does not only go to the Congress. Also to the allies. Let's talk about the heroes of the INDI alliance- Samajwadi Party.

The Samajwadi Party focussed on caste consolidation this time in UP. They grabbed votes from the BSP and then with the help of Congress, they won a lot of votes. The whole seat sharing was done correctly. Moreover, the party fought for the reservation of SCs and STs. Moreover, they made sure that local issues dominated in which BJP was clearly weak. As all the BJP candidates win their seats because of Modi, so the SP said, "Will Modi give you clean water in your local area? Your MP does." The alliance was also there in 2019 but due to infighting, they lost. But this time there was nothing as such. The alliance reduced BJP's tally to half. And won 43 seats together.

If I talk about one more alliance, it is about the Maharashtra one. The Congress, Shiv Sena, and NCP have shown the NDA its place. Shiv Sena and NCP didn't play any victim card this time. They again focussed on local issues. Uddhav Thackrey and Sharad Pawar planned a flawless strategy and of course, targeted BJP's washing machine politics. Democracy in danger was echoed in the streets of Maharashtra and they won 30 seats.

If the alliance has succeeded in a large number, then it would be in Tamil Nadu. The INDI alliance got all 39 seats. The chemistry of Congress and DMK was always a strong one. But what made them more strong, was that they didn't have an alternate strong alliance. The BJP- ADMK alliance would have given a strong competition but due to its absence, both the parties were crushed. Of course, CPM, VCK IUML, and MDMK also played a role here.

The RJD- Congress though worked together and campaigned heavily on the issue of Unemployment they only got a total of 7 seats.

The TMC played a huge game by not aligning with the Congress as joining with them would cut votes going to the BJP. Boy, were they right? TMC won 29 seats and shattered BJP hopes of coming to Bengal.

In Punjab, the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party worked together and kept out BJP. They effectively tapped into the farmer issue.

But still, the alliance suffered losses in areas like Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand.

Alright, let's ask some important questions.

Has Congress defeated the BJP in large scale? No. Has the alliance stopped the BJP? Yes.

So, Congress didn't win much seats, and with the help of the alliance, it has reduced the seats of the BJP. So if the alliance stays till 2029, they have to do the role of a robust opposition. But there are issues.

How Congress is sure that its allies will help them. Leave DMK, RJD. They have always been with the Congress. What about SP, TMC, AAP, and CPIM- if they leave the alliance, then the INDI alliance will lose 74 seats which will reduce their numbers to 158.

Will Congress work together with these parties to fight the BJP in upcoming state elections? If they did, the BJP would suffer huge losses. And if they also work together will it be full of conflicts? If that happens BJP will sweep the state.

And more importantly, what are the issues that are going to be raised in the parliament. 232 MP's voice is really important. Now that the opposition has gained more seats, EVMs can be no longer blamed. Since the BJP is weakened, they can't say that democracy is in danger as half the house is filled with opposition. No caste politics can be played as more youngster are coming to vote, it is evident that they are not voting based on caste. People above 55 years will generally vote for it, that is about 15% of the population. Still, 85% are below 55. (Just an abstract no. No data involved).

Opposition should take the issues that are bugging us. The main one is Unemployment. Is the government really executing its new education policy? Congress should play a major role here by convincing the TN state government and the central government to execute it. If NEP is implemented, the system where outdated concepts were taught will go and the syllabus will change as per the new technological and industrial requirements. INDI alliance should pressure the government to fill the Job vacancies. The best way of doing it is to implement a stringent order in every state to avoid paper leak scams. The future of students is at stake. 

Congress should demand a re-review of institutions like NTA, and the state public service commissions and try to figure out why results are delayed always. Agniveer scheme must be corrected at time as it involves national security.

Congress should ask why inflation is all-time high. Congress's fight should not only be for the poor, it should also be for the middle-class people.

The INDI alliance should make sure all the contracts signed to build infrastructure in the Himalayan regions are valid ones. Infra built in one wrong place could bring the whole mountains to debris.

India did take a vow to become a zero carbon emitting state by 2070, but no actions are taken. Climate change policy must be debated with the opposition. 

Congress should ask why the violence in Manipur, still prevailing, why Ladakh is still protesting, why there is a terrorist attack on Reasi even after abrogation of Article 370.

Congress should be the voice of the farmers who still haven't got their demands finished. Ask why there is a huge income inequality. Why middle class is being taxed so much.

Why trains are crowded and why existing railways are not being modernized.

Raising some issues like this is a sign of a good opposition. More aggressive and attacking with facts, rather than trash-talking in the parliament will give a balance as India needs a relevant opposition badly.

Congress is stronger than before and now they realized how opposition is done. So we can expect some dissent in the parliament. For the first time, the Leader of the Opposition, which was vacant for 10 years is finally being filled. As of 11th June, Rahul Gandhi has been asked to fill the Leader of Opposition. He hasn't accepted it, but it would be interesting to see him as the LoO.

A very important point. Congress should act as a shadow government. Now they do highlight problems. But Congress should also tell them what would they do if Congress were in the government. The solution to a new policy is not the old one. It is always in between. Congress, if even suggested, always backs the old one.

These are the few things we expect from the opposition. Hope they represent their people in the parliament and not their party's high commands.

 

Opposition is a very important position as it balances democracy. They play a key role in making sure the government is accountable.

Thanks for reading. We have almost reached to the end of the election series. There is one more blog that is the most important one. What's in for us.

So stay tuned for that.